The case for
Chicago White Sox
1.
Fedde's 4.94 ERA actually understates how bad he's been. His xERA sits at 4.50, meaning even his peripherals suggest regression coming.
2.
The White Sox offense averages 4.77 runs per game but gets a bump at Guaranteed Rate Field, which plays as a hitter-friendly park with a 106 park factor.
3.
Chicago's bullpen will be tested early. Fedde hasn't completed 6 innings in his last four starts, including a disaster 3.1-inning outing where he gave up 8 runs to San Francisco.
The case for
Atlanta Braves
1.
Holmes looks like the real deal with a 3.86 ERA backed by solid peripherals. His 57 strikeouts in 63 innings show he can miss bats when needed.
2.
Atlanta's offense is clicking at 5.21 runs per game and riding a 7-game winning streak. They've scored 37 runs over their last 7 games.
3.
The Braves bullpen gets an advantage with Holmes' recent form. He's gone at least 5 innings in his last three starts, keeping their relievers fresh.