The case for
New York Mets
1.
McLean's 3.98 ERA is masking better stuff underneath. His 3.37 xERA suggests he's been unlucky, and the strikeout rate (10.2 K/9) backs up the talent.
2.
The Mets offense is legitimately struggling at .228/.658 with only 4.00 runs per game. That's bottom-tier production that puts pressure on McLean to be perfect.
3.
Citi Field's 95 park factor tilts pitcher-friendly, which should help both starters but particularly benefits the home team in close games.
The case for
Atlanta Braves
1.
Strider's peripherals flash warning signs. His 3.04 xERA is solid, but he's walked 19 in just 36 innings, and his recent starts show inconsistent command.
2.
Atlanta's offense (.256/.751, 5.15 R/G) is significantly better than New York's, giving them more margin for error if Strider struggles early.
3.
The Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 after that White Sox series, but they've been scoring consistently throughout the rough patch.