The case for
Cincinnati Reds
1.
Lodolo's 4.68 ERA is already bad. His 6.12 xERA is worse. The underlying contact quality says he's been getting bailed out by sequencing and defense, and that bill comes due eventually.
2.
His last five starts tell two stories. Two complete disasters bookend three decent outings. The good stretches involve soft contact and low walk totals. The bad ones look like a pitcher whose stuff plays down fast once his command slips.
3.
The Reds offense is a bottom-tier unit at .228/.309/.701. They score 4.17 runs per game, and Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. That gap between venue and output is a red flag for Cincinnati bats.
The case for
Chicago Cubs
1.
Assad's 4.15 ERA is close to his 4.65 xERA. No significant gap either direction. He is what the number says he is, a solid mid-rotation arm with good command and modest strikeout upside.
2.
His 1.10 WHIP and 33:15 K:BB ratio reflect a pitcher who keeps traffic off the bases. His last start was 4.2 scoreless innings. His disaster outing, 4ER in 2.2 innings on June 30, looks like an outlier against the broader pattern.
3.
The Cubs offense is the better unit here by every measure. .243 AVG, .745 OPS, 5.01 runs per game. In GABP, that kind of lineup with real pop, 118 HR on the season, carries significant ceiling.