The case for
New York Yankees
1.
Rodón's ERA (3.19) and xERA (3.28) are nearly identical, meaning the results are real. He's not running on luck, and his last four starts show 6.0 IP each with minimal damage allowed.
2.
The Yankees offense is one of the most dangerous in the league at 5.21 R/G with 106 home runs. Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch amplifies that power further, making every at-bat against a struggling pitcher a threat to go deep.
3.
Rodón is trending in the right direction. After a shaky 3.2-inning outing on May 16, he's reeled off four straight quality starts with a 3BB-per-start walk rate that is a known concern but manageable given the opponent he's facing tonight.
The case for
Chicago White Sox
1.
Kay's ERA (4.34) is masking something worse. His xERA sits at 5.64, a gap of 1.30 runs. That means hitters are making harder contact than his ERA currently reflects, and regression is coming.
2.
Kay's WHIP of 1.42 is a problem in Yankee Stadium. Putting runners on base at that rate against a lineup averaging 5.21 R/G, in a park that inflates offense, is a combustible combination.
3.
The White Sox offense is the weaker side of this matchup. A .733 OPS and 4.72 R/G against a pitcher with a legitimate 3.19 ERA in a road environment makes run support a real concern for Chicago.