The case for
Milwaukee Brewers
1.
Misiorowski is the best pitcher in this game and it isn't close. His 1.45 ERA is backed by a 2.12 xERA, meaning the results are real and he's outperforming even his underlying metrics. At 146 strikeouts over 99 innings with only 27 walks, his command is elite.
2.
Misiorowski's last three starts before his most recent two were complete shutdowns: back-to-back 7-inning zeroes followed by a nine-inning, 15-strikeout perfection outing. The slight uptick in his last two starts, 3 combined ER over 12 innings, reads as minor regression, not a trend.
3.
Milwaukee has won three straight against Cincinnati heading into this game. Their offense posts a .737 OPS and 5.17 runs per game, giving Misiorowski a real run-support cushion even on nights he allows a run or two.
The case for
Cincinnati Reds
1.
Burns posted a 2.36 ERA, but his 2.97 xERA says he's been getting some help from results. The gap isn't alarming, but it means his ERA flatters him slightly. His last start, 5 earned runs over 6 innings against Pittsburgh, is the version of Burns that xERA hints at.
2.
Burns has not exceeded 6 innings in any of his last five starts, and he's walked 3 batters in three of those outings. Against a Milwaukee lineup scoring 5-plus per game, a short outing puts Cincinnati's bullpen in an early, uncomfortable spot.
3.
Cincinnati's offense is a liability in this matchup. They're hitting .228 with a .698 OPS and scoring just 4.20 runs per game. They've scored 2, 3, and 2 runs in their three straight losses to Milwaukee. Putting runs on the board against Misiorowski is a tall ask for this group.