The case for
Washington Nationals
1.
Littell's 5.32 ERA is bad, but his 6.37 xERA is worse. The underlying contact quality says he's been getting bailed out by defense and sequencing, not pitching better than results show.
2.
That June 12th start against Seattle was a red flag in neon. One inning, five earned runs, zero strikeouts. Coming off a stretch where he looked competent, that kind of implosion suggests command issues that can resurface without warning.
3.
Washington's offense has been the saving grace. Five runs per game, a .748 OPS, and 96 home runs on the season. They've also won four of their last five, including back-to-back wins over Kansas City to close out this very series.
The case for
Kansas City Royals
1.
Avila's 6.19 ERA is a mess on the surface, but his 4.82 xERA tells a different story. The results have been uglier than the underlying performance, which means some regression toward better outcomes is plausible.
2.
The walk rate is the problem. Twenty-two walks in 32 innings is a fireman with a gasoline habit. When his command slips, as it did against Houston on June 12, it unravels fast. Eight earned runs in two-thirds of an inning is a disaster, not a blip.
3.
Kansas City's offense is the real liability. A .695 OPS and 3.99 runs per game rank among the weaker units in the league. They've dropped four of their last five, including both games of this series, and their power numbers are thin with just 65 home runs.