The case for
Atlanta Braves
1.
Elder's 2.63 ERA is slightly inflated based on his 3.07 xERA, but the gap isn't massive and his recent form shows real volatility with that 5 ER blowup against Boston.
2.
Atlanta's offense runs significantly hotter than Pittsburgh with 5.25 runs per game versus 5.09, backed by superior Statcast metrics including a .758 OPS and 90 home runs.
3.
The Braves bullpen gets a major rest advantage after winning the last two games by identical 6-3 scores, meaning their high-leverage arms should be fresh.
The case for
Pittsburgh Pirates
1.
Chandler's 5.05 ERA actually understates how bad he's been with a 4.47 xERA still well above replacement level, and his 1.53 WHIP shows constant traffic on the bases.
2.
Pittsburgh's offense has been ice cold recently, scoring just 22 runs over their last 7 games while going 3-4 in that stretch.
3.
The Pirates bullpen is missing Chris Devenski on the 15-day IL, removing a key late-innings option when they're already struggling to keep games close.