The case for
Miami Marlins
1.
Tyler Phillips is pitching better than his ERA suggests on the surface, but his 4.95 xERA tells the opposite story. He has allowed exactly 2 earned runs in four of his last five starts, which looks consistent until you realize he has not exceeded 5.0 innings in any of those outings. Miami's bullpen is being asked to cover 4-plus innings regularly because Phillips cannot go deep.
2.
Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games, including the first two games of this series by scores of 2-0 and 8-2. The Marlins are playing with momentum at home, and their lineup, anchored by Edwards, Lopez, and Conine at the top, has enough contact ability to work Ashcraft's pitch count in a pitcher-friendly environment.
3.
loanDepot park suppresses offense. The retractable roof eliminates weather as a variable and keeps conditions consistent. In a low-total environment, the team whose starter can go deep and limit bullpen exposure has a structural edge, and Phillips' track record of short outings cuts against Miami there.
The case for
Pittsburgh Pirates
1.
Braxton Ashcraft's 4.08 ERA is backed by a 3.44 xERA, meaning his results have been slightly worse than his underlying performance deserves. His 145 strikeouts against just 32 walks in 132.1 innings is elite command. A 4.53 K:BB ratio at that volume is a genuine weapon.
2.
Pittsburgh scores 4.95 runs per game, the better offense in this matchup. Their team OPS of .742 and .333 OBP give them multiple ways to damage a pitcher. Against a Phillips who rarely finishes the sixth inning, there will be opportunities to attack a thin Miami bullpen depleted by multiple IL stints.
3.
Ashcraft's recent form is inconsistent. He gave up 7 earned runs in 3 innings on July 20 and 4 earned runs on August 6. His last two starts before those were encouraging, but the volatility is real. Pittsburgh's offense gives him margin for error that Miami's lineup may not be able to replicate for Phillips.