The case for
New York Yankees
1.
Will Warren's ERA sits at 4.03, but his xERA of 4.46 says he's been outperforming his underlying stuff. The results are slightly better than what he deserves, and that gap is worth tracking in a hitter-friendly park.
2.
Warren's recent form is a mess. He got shelled for 6 ER in 4 innings against Tampa Bay, then held Washington to 1 ER in 5. The inconsistency is the pattern, not the outlier, and his 1.36 WHIP confirms he puts runners on at a high rate.
3.
The Yankees offense is slugging .423 with 146 home runs as a team, and Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch amplifies that. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.33 runs per game, which is a dangerous combination against this lineup at this venue.
The case for
Pittsburgh Pirates
1.
Bubba Chandler's ERA of 4.77 overstates how bad he's been. His xERA of 4.14 suggests he's been unlucky on results. The gap between those two numbers is meaningful. He may be pitching better than the box scores show.
2.
Chandler's walk rate is the real concern. Fifty-five walks in 94.1 innings is an ugly number. His last two starts both featured 3+ walks and 4 ER or more. Pitchers who can't throw strikes at Yankee Stadium get eaten alive.
3.
Pittsburgh is hitting .263 with a .768 OPS and averaging 5.33 runs per game. That offense is functional on the road and can put pressure on a pitcher like Warren whose WHIP says he has trouble keeping the bases clean.