The case for
Atlanta Braves
1.
Reynaldo López carries a 3.50 ERA, but his 4.52 xERA says the results are running ahead of the process. He's been getting away with contact, and regression is on the table.
2.
López has back-to-back short outings of 3.0IP before a modest stretch of 5.0IP starts, capped by a brutal 5.0IP/4ER clunker his last time out. The workload and the recent punishment both point to a starter who is not fully locked in.
3.
Atlanta's offense is the real asset here. 4.97 runs per game, a .734 OPS, and 132 home runs on the season. They punish weak pitching, and Buehler is walking in the door weak.
The case for
San Diego Padres
1.
Walker Buehler's 5.36 ERA and 4.52 xERA are aligned for once, and the alignment is ugly. Three of his last four starts have ended with 4-plus earned runs allowed, including a 9-ER catastrophe against Chicago and a 2.0IP implosion against Toronto.
2.
Buehler's WHIP sits at 1.44 and his walk rate has spiked recently, with 4 walks in just 2.0IP his last outing. Command issues against a lineup with Atlanta's power profile is a dangerous combination.
3.
San Diego scores 4.07 runs per game with a .683 OPS. They do not have the offensive firepower to bail out a struggling starter or manufacture runs in a deficit situation.