The case for
Baltimore Orioles
1.
Shane Baz has been locked in with a 1.40 ERA over his last 4 starts, but his 4.55 xERA suggests he's been getting lucky and regression is coming.
2.
Baltimore's offense has been solid at 4.73 runs per game with 82 home runs, giving them multiple ways to score in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards environment.
3.
The Orioles bullpen gets to work in a park that plays neutral overall, though today's 79-82°F temps with wind blowing out to left field should add some carry to fly balls.
The case for
San Diego Padres
1.
Griffin Canning's 6.34 ERA looks ugly but his 4.46 xERA shows he's been unlucky - the underlying metrics suggest better performance ahead.
2.
San Diego's offense has been anemic at just 3.81 runs per game with a .651 OPS, making it hard to capitalize even when Canning keeps them in games.
3.
The Padres are missing key pieces with Campusano, Cronenworth, and Musgrove all on the IL, weakening both their lineup depth and pitching staff.