The case for
Kansas City Royals
1.
Wacha's 3.44 ERA masks serious problems. His 4.22 xERA signals he's been lucky, and he got torched for 6 runs in 5 innings against this same Rangers lineup on May 31.
2.
Kansas City's offense is anemic. .239 average and .694 OPS rank near the bottom of the league, and they've managed just 3.93 runs per game.
3.
The Royals bullpen has been solid with a 3.16 ERA, giving them a reliable bridge if Wacha can keep it close through five innings.
The case for
Texas Rangers
1.
Rocker's peripherals are uglier than his 3.44 ERA suggests. His 4.61 xERA and 1.33 WHIP show he's been fortunate, plus he's walking 3.8 batters per nine innings.
2.
Texas hits slightly better than Kansas City but the difference is minimal. .237 average and .701 OPS with 4.04 runs per game - both offenses are below average.
3.
The Rangers are 4-3 in their last seven but the run differential tells a different story. They've been outscored 31-26 in that stretch despite the winning record.