The case for
Arizona Diamondbacks
1.
Soroka's 3.49 ERA undersells his performance with a 4.08 xERA suggesting he's been getting favorable results. His last five starts show solid control with just 4 walks total, but the Dodgers tagged him for 4 earned in his most recent outing.
2.
Arizona's offense has been ice cold, averaging just 4.34 runs per game with a weak .692 OPS. They've lost 4 of their last 5 games and got completely dominated by this same Nationals lineup earlier in the series, scoring just 2 runs in two games.
3.
Chase Field's hitter-friendly environment with a 108 HR park factor should boost offensive numbers, which matters more for the visiting Nationals who have shown far more pop with 85 homers compared to Arizona's 56.
The case for
Washington Nationals
1.
Cavalli's 3.62 ERA aligns closely with his 3.97 xERA, showing his results are legitimate. His 74 strikeouts in 64.2 innings demonstrate solid stuff, though his 1.42 WHIP indicates some traffic on the bases.
2.
Washington's offense has been explosive with 5.40 runs per game and a strong .746 OPS. Their 85 home runs show real power, and they just demolished Arizona 14-1 and 6-1 in their previous two meetings this series.
3.
The Nationals are riding momentum with recent dominant wins, while their offense has been clicking at a much higher level than Arizona's struggling lineup all season long.